Sunday, August 23, 2015

Divorce rate vs fertility rate

I was curious to see what correlation can be observed between fertility rate and divorce rate.
So I downloaded the data for the European Union (source: Eurostat) and tried to plot them.

The divorce rate is defined as the ratio of the number of divorces during the year to the average population in that year. The value is expressed per 1000 inhabitants.

The (total) fertility rate is the number of children a woman would have if she was subject to prevailing fertility rates at all ages from a single given year, and survives throughout all her childbearing years.

The graph below shows the fertility rate in Europe in the years 2004-2013, the size of the circles being proportional to the divorce rate.
     

Below, a more detailed view, for each year:

There is some correlation between the two indicators (infertility can be a cause of divorce, and early divorce can prevent a couple from having any children).

But this correlation is not strong, probably because many other factors (religion, social welfare, unemployment rate, etc.) can influence these two indicators.

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